Yield

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Likely No

2025-07-09T22:53:51.254Z

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Jul 9, 10:53 PM (8 months ago)

Foreign PolicyGeopoliticsMacro GeopoliticsPoliticsputinTrump PresidencyTrump-ZelenskyyUkraineUkraine Peace DealWorld

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