Yield

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Likely No

2025-11-24T17:32:09.459Z

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nov 24, 5:32 PM (4 months ago)

ChinaEarn 4%Foreign PolicyGeopoliticsPoliticsWorld

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