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Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Likely No

2025-12-02T21:05:52.689Z

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Apr 1, 3:59 AM (in 15 days)

AIBig TechGemini 3GrokOpenAITech

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Market Statistics

APR

—

LAST TRADE

0.006

1WK VOL

4,700.29

1MO VOL

9,244.76

1YR VOL

9,538.82

END AT 2026/04/01

15 days left

Price History

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